20/01/2012 Market review

I shorted the market last month around 200 day Moving average. It did not work.The gold bounced back from the lows, that was the good trade for the past period.

Below is the daily chart of sp. The market is going up since mid december without a decent pullback. First support is the green line ,20 day ma around 1275 and the major support is the yellow line, 200 day MA around 1257.

Looking to the weekly chart below, the  supports below 200 day MA are the 80 week MA(blue line) 1235 and the 20 week MA(green line) 1227.

To summarize, the current market is a wait and see for me. Looking at the price action,it seems that the market turbulance during the summer and early autumn was just a correction in the bull market and the market is quite likely to make new highs, but I just dont believe it, thus i dont bet on it.

The indicators i developed for myself give me the following market strength at the moment:
day    :    0.169
week   :  4.48
month  :-2.487

This suggests me that the  long term trend is still down, mid term,markets are strong and short term markets are neutral to weakly bullish.

16/12/2011 Market Analysis

The market is kind of in a range, 200 day Moving average (yellow line ) setting the upside resistance for now.200 week Ma(yellow line in the weekly chart) is roughly setting downside support for now.

Nothing much to mention. A decisive break to the upside looks unlikely, and the momentum indicators are converging all to the sell side. Below is the daily and weekly graphs of sp daily index.

daily graph:

weekly graph:

Finally i bought more gold for the long term, and now i m watching the market action, to get out gradually in case the sell off continues below 1520s.Below is the weekly graph of gold:

The coming month , I will be watching the indicators closely to short the index.Happy holidays!

Market review 18/11/2011

I am still long the gold for the real long term, other than that, as planned last month  i was short some calls when sp was trading around 200 day MA, but now i covered them as the market getting close to the support, and european indices are trading around 50 day moving average although the short term momentum is still down.

Lets have a look at the charts. Check the sp index daily graph below:
As you can see, sp index traded 1296 when the news of an aggrement among eurozone leaders hit the market and european shares traded around 5 % higher for the day. After then, there have been quite some sessions where 20 day moving average acted as support and 200 day moving average was the resistance. The markets will probably test 50 day MA soon which is around 1205.

The weekly chart is below:
Both 50 week and 20 week MAs are flat, indicating a sideways priceaction for now, 50 week MA as the resistance for now around 1270. Weekly momentum is still bullish.

BAsed on the current price action, I am looking to get long only when the daily  momentum turns bullish.When i check the indicators, it doesnt look likely soon, maybe next week, but 200 day MA resistance sits tight around 1270, so the upside is limited for now. That being the case, I am waiting for an upmove, to short the market once again close to the 200 day MA.

21/10/2011 Market review

Concerning the trades I was looking for past month, i m just in gold for long term. Other than that did nothing positionwise.The markets are extremely choppy and waiting for very high probability trades.


First lets check the daily graph below:
Sp future is around 1221 at the moment. There is a strong resistance around 1233. 200 day Ma is aroudn 1274, thats the level I am looking for. The indicators overall show strength for the short term. So i still dont like 1230s as a level to short.To get long, there has to be a decent pullback to 1170-1180s where 20 day and 50 day MAs are. 50 day Ma is turning upwards, which is another pro for short term up bias.

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The Weekly graph below shows that the market is trading around 20 week MA which is around 1226, the next level is 1250s and 1266 , 50 week MA. You can see that 50 week MA is flat, which means mid term up trend(2-3 year)  is at least in a pause and 20 week Crossed below 50 week MA. Bollinger lines are flat, indicating a range for now.If you look at the Macd(the indicator below the volume),histograms are back to neutral, and turn positive in case we dont see a sell off next week.Stoch is on the oversold levels as well. 

Finally below is the monthly chart. The MACD in the lower side of the chart shows a possible break down , possible enterance to a bear market whereas the candle made during the price action of past month shows a reversal. Which one is true?Time will tell.

 As you see, a lot of conflicting signs, mid term range vs short term up vs very long term bear market? 

Basically, this month trades I might be looking for are try long on 50 day MA for sp, short around 200 day MA, might buy more Gold if it goes back to 1530-1550, of course all depending on the market action at the time .I dont follow eur/chf that much becuase of the snb intervention to the markets. 

16/09/2011 Market review

The market had a bounce , sold off again, made new lows in dax, and bounced sharply once more. On the right hand side is the sp daily chart:

The market had a rally till 1231, and sold back to 1130 and now trading around 1200 again. I sold my longs and now I am looking for 1231 level, 50 day MA to short the market. I have the feeling of a big rally coming up so, I dont really believe 50 day MA will work but with a tight stop it is worth trading. I have a better feeling of 1283, the 200 day MA.

On the right is the weekly chart:You can see the 50 week Ma is still with a positive slope. 20 week and 50 week are intersecting around 1265 which is another resistance before 200 day MA.Finally i would like to point out sth interesting in the monthly chart below:

Look at the orange circles in stoch and MACD.Stoch already broke down,and MACD is testing to break down which means the uptrend lost its power significantly and if the market does not show some power up soon, it is very likely that we enter the bear market. Look how the previous break ups/downs mark the reversal points.

Next is the dax daily graph:See how the moves in the past couple of weeks was in a downward sloping channel-flag. When the market breaks this channel, up or down, we will most probably see a strong move! At the moment, upper side of the channel is being tested, and this is another reason I dont like the 50 day MA at 1231 as a selling point. It is just not that strong.

Here is the eur chf daily chart:As mentioned in the previous past, there were some crazy moments during the past month when eur chf spike from 1.10 to 1.21 in a matter of time due to SNB announcment of doing WHATEVER IT TAKES to keep eur chf at least at 1.20! Well I wait for 200 day MA to short it as I said last time. DId nothing so far.

On the right is the gold day chart:I have been looking to enter the gold around 200 day MA(yellow line), which has been the major support during the past 2 years but looks like gold might not see those levels for a long time.50 day Ma (orange line) intersects the breakout from the channel, seems to be a good point to get long for the long term around 1730. And if we see a bigger sell off 200 day MA is still there around 1516. I start buying slowly around these levels.

Mittal has been one of the stocks sharply sold off during the past months. It is almost on all time lows, so I got long aroun 12.5. My target is around 15. 50 day Ma is around 17, and the market is testing the 20 day Ma to the upsite around current levels. Of course it all depends on the broad market.All around in the daily charts there are bullish divergences on MACD, so i see the probability quite high for a quick rally.






Last month I was looking for the following trades:

sell eur/chf around 200 day MA(1.25 at the moment) :Target is 20 day MA.Stop should be wider than usual, because of the possible volatility after such a move. SO size of the trade should not be too big. I dont see eur/chf going those levels that fast, but you never know what SNB will do to "normalize" the franc.

INDEED SNB INTERVENED THE MARKETS DID NOTHING SO FAR.

buy index future:sp index support 1100. I am long small index position around sp 1120, with sp support around 1100. I will buy around 1100 if the market sell of continues, and I will scale out if the support is broken.I still have some extra puts left , so I am covered to some extent.Target 1208!

WORKED FINE!

sell index future:.: Mainly 200 day MA, around 1285. .I will probably sell 20 day and 50 day MA's with tight stops, depending on the situation at the time.

COULD NOT SELL!

 This month I am looking for the following trades:

BUY small gold position around current levels, increase the size if the sell off continues, reduce if 200 day MA broken (1520) for the real long term! (Already bought 1770)

 SELL index future:.: Mainly 200 day MA, around 1283...I will probably sell 50 day MA' with tight stop around 1231 depending on the situation at the time.

 SELL eur/chf around 200 day MA(1.2369 at the moment), BE READY FOR EXTREME VOLATILITY , keep the size of the trade managable.

 BUY index future/STOCKS:in case market goes close 1100 level. major support..

Market review 19/08/2011

The markets sold off sharply and today we saw new lows in dax.To be honest,expecting the down move even I was caught a little off guard with the speed of the sell of. But , I had my protection for couple of months, the 1 by 5 put ratio , which worked perfectly as a hedge to the stocks, turbos i bought on supports. Is it early to call that we are officially in the bear market? We will see. Fed can pull out the qe 3 , just like last year, to support the markets.Lets first check what happened:

Below is the SP weekly chart. Well, none of the supports I mentioned hold, namely 80 week MA around 1208(blue line), and 200 week Ma yellow line around 1160. The market sold till 1100, with around 1077 the low in the future during the pre-open phase.Then we had couple of crazy sessions with 5% up , 4% down, again 4% up...Well, market is being sold heavily again during the past two days, using 80 week MA as the resistance.



The day chart is below:The first major resistance is 1208 , 80 week ma, blue line, where the market reversed 2 days ago.I have been looking at the 80 week MA as the support for the bull market for the past 2 years, well the reversal of the market from that level might be a sign that we are indeed in the bear market. The picture will be clear in few weeks. I will be watching 20 day(1230 at the moment) and more importantly 200 day MA(1285 at the moment) to short the market.



Now, the eurchf. As mentioned in my previous post i tried to get long on the lows when tested 2 nd time around 1, 08. But immediately closed the positions when new lows were made. Psychological 1 level holded, but never saw the level again to get long. There were rumours about pegging the franc with Eur, which helped a 15 % rally.Thats the reason I did not sell into 20 day MA. It was a completely new situation Below you can see the daily chart, the market is testing the breakdown of the long term down channel. Actually, I am quite resistant to short it till these rumours with SNB are more clear. 1.16 is the 50 day MA, where the previous down move happened, it might be a good level. If there is some kind of a spike due to a rumour, i will definitely try shorting around 1.25, 200 day MA.



Last month trades I was looking for:

eur/chf: buy 1.08 with a tight stop did not work Stopped immediately.
sell into ma20: did not due to unknown market conditions.

This month:

sell eur/chf around 200 day MA(1.25 at the moment) :Target is 20 day MA.Stop should be wider than usual, because of the possible volatility after such a move. SO size of the trade should not be too big. I dont see eur/chf going those levels that fast, but you never know what SNB will do to "normalize" the franc.

buy index future:sp index support 1100. I am long small index position around sp 1120, with sp support around 1100. I will buy around 1100 if the market sell of continues, and I will scale out if the support is broken.I still have some extra puts left , so I am covered to some extent.Target 1208!

sell index future:.: Mainly 200 day MA, around 1285. .I will probably sell 20 day and 50 day MA's with tight stops, depending on the situation at the time.

S&P and EUR/CHF update

Below is the sp index weekly graph. The market is testing the march 2011 lows around 1250. The future bounced from that level and up half a percent for the day at the moment. In the bigger picture , the 80 week MA (blue line), which in my opinion is the critical support, lies around 1206. And the huge support is the 200 week MA(yellow line) , around 1160. Note that 200 week MA is still sloping downwards. To the upside 200 day MA is around 1285 which will act as a strong resistance.And next is the 50 day MA around 1306 at the moment.



I was stopped on my small long position in eur/chf when it made a new low around 1.147. But as I was still on vacation at the time, unfortunately missed to sell 20 day MA on 22 nd of July at 1.189 .Well it had a strong down run from that level to 1.0795 today. But as you can see in the daily chart below, it bounced strongly after swiss central bank announced they will take actions against a strong franc. Well , 20 day MA shorting is still a good game, the markets can easily make a big bounce. It is around 1.15 which also intersects with the break of the down channel.I will try to long close to the low around 1.08 with a tight stop in case it goes down those levels again.