BHC Fund Market Analysis

20/01/2012 Market review

2012-01-20T01:41:00.000-08:00

I shorted the market last month around 200 day Moving average. It did not work.The gold bounced back from the lows, that was the good trade for the past period.

Below is the daily chart of sp. The market is going up since mid december without a decent pullback. First support is the green line ,20 day ma around 1275 and the major support is the yellow line, 200 day MA around 1257.

Looking to the weekly chart below, the supports below 200 day MA are the 80 week MA(blue line) 1235 and the 20 week MA(green line) 1227.

To summarize, the current market is a wait and see for me. Looking at the price action,it seems that the market turbulance during the summer and early autumn was just a correction in the bull market and the market is quite likely to make new highs, but I just dont believe it, thus i dont bet on it.

The indicators i developed for myself give me the following market strength at the moment:
day : 0.169
week : 4.48
month :-2.487

This suggests me that the long term trend is still down, mid term,markets are strong and short term markets are neutral to weakly bullish.

16/12/2011 Market Analysis

2011-12-16T04:18:00.000-08:00

The market is kind of in a range, 200 day Moving average (yellow line ) setting the upside resistance for now.200 week Ma(yellow line in the weekly chart) is roughly setting downside support for now.

Nothing much to mention. A decisive break to the upside looks unlikely, and the momentum indicators are converging all to the sell side. Below is the daily and weekly graphs of sp daily index.

daily graph:

weekly graph:

Finally i bought more gold for the long term, and now i m watching the market action, to get out gradually in case the sell off continues below 1520s.Below is the weekly graph of gold:

The coming month , I will be watching the indicators closely to short the index.Happy holidays!

Market review 18/11/2011

2011-11-18T00:23:00.001-08:00

I am still long the gold for the real long term, other than that, as planned last month i was short some calls when sp was trading around 200 day MA, but now i covered them as the market getting close to the support, and european indices are trading around 50 day moving average although the short term momentum is still down.

Lets have a look at the charts. Check the sp index daily graph below:
As you can see, sp index traded 1296 when the news of an aggrement among eurozone leaders hit the market and european shares traded around 5 % higher for the day. After then, there have been quite some sessions where 20 day moving average acted as support and 200 day moving average was the resistance. The markets will probably test 50 day MA soon which is around 1205.

The weekly chart is below:
Both 50 week and 20 week MAs are flat, indicating a sideways priceaction for now, 50 week MA as the resistance for now around 1270. Weekly momentum is still bullish.

BAsed on the current price action, I am looking to get long only when the daily momentum turns bullish.When i check the indicators, it doesnt look likely soon, maybe next week, but 200 day MA resistance sits tight around 1270, so the upside is limited for now. That being the case, I am waiting for an upmove, to short the market once again close to the 200 day MA.

21/10/2011 Market review

2011-10-21T05:28:00.000-07:00

Concerning the trades I was looking for past month, i m just in gold for long term. Other than that did nothing positionwise.The markets are extremely choppy and waiting for very high probability trades.

First lets check the daily graph below:
Sp future is around 1221 at the moment. There is a strong resistance around 1233. 200 day Ma is aroudn 1274, thats the level I am looking for. The indicators overall show strength for the short term. So i still dont like 1230s as a level to short.To get long, there has to be a decent pullback to 1170-1180s where 20 day and 50 day MAs are. 50 day Ma is turning upwards, which is another pro for short term up bias.

The Weekly graph below shows that the market is trading around 20 week MA which is around 1226, the next level is 1250s and 1266 , 50 week MA. You can see that 50 week MA is flat, which means mid term up trend(2-3 year) is at least in a pause and 20 week Crossed below 50 week MA. Bollinger lines are flat, indicating a range for now.If you look at the Macd(the indicator below the volume),histograms are back to neutral, and turn positive in case we dont see a sell off next week.Stoch is on the oversold levels as well.

Finally below is the monthly chart. The MACD in the lower side of the chart shows a possible break down , possible enterance to a bear market whereas the candle made during the price action of past month shows a reversal. Which one is true?Time will tell.

As you see, a lot of conflicting signs, mid term range vs short term up vs very long term bear market?

Basically, this month trades I might be looking for are try long on 50 day MA for sp, short around 200 day MA, might buy more Gold if it goes back to 1530-1550, of course all depending on the market action at the time .I dont follow eur/chf that much becuase of the snb intervention to the markets.

16/09/2011 Market review

2011-09-16T01:54:00.000-07:00

The market had a bounce , sold off again, made new lows in dax, and bounced sharply once more. On the right hand side is the sp daily chart:

The market had a rally till 1231, and sold back to 1130 and now trading around 1200 again. I sold my longs and now I am looking for 1231 level, 50 day MA to short the market. I have the feeling of a big rally coming up so, I dont really believe 50 day MA will work but with a tight stop it is worth trading. I have a better feeling of 1283, the 200 day MA.

On the right is the weekly chart:You can see the 50 week Ma is still with a positive slope. 20 week and 50 week are intersecting around 1265 which is another resistance before 200 day MA.Finally i would like to point out sth interesting in the monthly chart below:

Look at the orange circles in stoch and MACD.Stoch already broke down,and MACD is testing to break down which means the uptrend lost its power significantly and if the market does not show some power up soon, it is very likely that we enter the bear market. Look how the previous break ups/downs mark the reversal points.

Next is the dax daily graph:See how the moves in the past couple of weeks was in a downward sloping channel-flag. When the market breaks this channel, up or down, we will most probably see a strong move! At the moment, upper side of the channel is being tested, and this is another reason I dont like the 50 day MA at 1231 as a selling point. It is just not that strong.

Here is the eur chf daily chart:As mentioned in the previous past, there were some crazy moments during the past month when eur chf spike from 1.10 to 1.21 in a matter of time due to SNB announcment of doing WHATEVER IT TAKES to keep eur chf at least at 1.20! Well I wait for 200 day MA to short it as I said last time. DId nothing so far.

On the right is the gold day chart:I have been looking to enter the gold around 200 day MA(yellow line), which has been the major support during the past 2 years but looks like gold might not see those levels for a long time.50 day Ma (orange line) intersects the breakout from the channel, seems to be a good point to get long for the long term around 1730. And if we see a bigger sell off 200 day MA is still there around 1516. I start buying slowly around these levels.

Mittal has been one of the stocks sharply sold off during the past months. It is almost on all time lows, so I got long aroun 12.5. My target is around 15. 50 day Ma is around 17, and the market is testing the 20 day Ma to the upsite around current levels. Of course it all depends on the broad market.All around in the daily charts there are bullish divergences on MACD, so i see the probability quite high for a quick rally.

Last month I was looking for the following trades:

sell eur/chf around 200 day MA(1.25 at the moment) :Target is 20 day MA.Stop should be wider than usual, because of the possible volatility after such a move. SO size of the trade should not be too big. I dont see eur/chf going those levels that fast, but you never know what SNB will do to "normalize" the franc.

INDEED SNB INTERVENED THE MARKETS DID NOTHING SO FAR.

buy index future:sp index support 1100. I am long small index position around sp 1120, with sp support around 1100. I will buy around 1100 if the market sell of continues, and I will scale out if the support is broken.I still have some extra puts left , so I am covered to some extent.Target 1208!

WORKED FINE!

sell index future:.: Mainly 200 day MA, around 1285. .I will probably sell 20 day and 50 day MA's with tight stops, depending on the situation at the time.

COULD NOT SELL!

This month I am looking for the following trades:

BUY small gold position around current levels, increase the size if the sell off continues, reduce if 200 day MA broken (1520) for the real long term! (Already bought 1770)

SELL index future:.: Mainly 200 day MA, around 1283...I will probably sell 50 day MA' with tight stop around 1231 depending on the situation at the time.

SELL eur/chf around 200 day MA(1.2369 at the moment), BE READY FOR EXTREME VOLATILITY , keep the size of the trade managable.

BUY index future/STOCKS:in case market goes close 1100 level. major support..

Market review 19/08/2011

2011-08-19T01:53:00.000-07:00

The markets sold off sharply and today we saw new lows in dax.To be honest,expecting the down move even I was caught a little off guard with the speed of the sell of. But , I had my protection for couple of months, the 1 by 5 put ratio , which worked perfectly as a hedge to the stocks, turbos i bought on supports. Is it early to call that we are officially in the bear market? We will see. Fed can pull out the qe 3 , just like last year, to support the markets.Lets first check what happened:

Below is the SP weekly chart. Well, none of the supports I mentioned hold, namely 80 week MA around 1208(blue line), and 200 week Ma yellow line around 1160. The market sold till 1100, with around 1077 the low in the future during the pre-open phase.Then we had couple of crazy sessions with 5% up , 4% down, again 4% up...Well, market is being sold heavily again during the past two days, using 80 week MA as the resistance.

The day chart is below:The first major resistance is 1208 , 80 week ma, blue line, where the market reversed 2 days ago.I have been looking at the 80 week MA as the support for the bull market for the past 2 years, well the reversal of the market from that level might be a sign that we are indeed in the bear market. The picture will be clear in few weeks. I will be watching 20 day(1230 at the moment) and more importantly 200 day MA(1285 at the moment) to short the market.

Now, the eurchf. As mentioned in my previous post i tried to get long on the lows when tested 2 nd time around 1, 08. But immediately closed the positions when new lows were made. Psychological 1 level holded, but never saw the level again to get long. There were rumours about pegging the franc with Eur, which helped a 15 % rally.Thats the reason I did not sell into 20 day MA. It was a completely new situation Below you can see the daily chart, the market is testing the breakdown of the long term down channel. Actually, I am quite resistant to short it till these rumours with SNB are more clear. 1.16 is the 50 day MA, where the previous down move happened, it might be a good level. If there is some kind of a spike due to a rumour, i will definitely try shorting around 1.25, 200 day MA.

Last month trades I was looking for:

eur/chf: buy 1.08 with a tight stop did not work Stopped immediately.
sell into ma20: did not due to unknown market conditions.

This month:

sell eur/chf around 200 day MA(1.25 at the moment) :Target is 20 day MA.Stop should be wider than usual, because of the possible volatility after such a move. SO size of the trade should not be too big. I dont see eur/chf going those levels that fast, but you never know what SNB will do to "normalize" the franc.

buy index future:sp index support 1100. I am long small index position around sp 1120, with sp support around 1100. I will buy around 1100 if the market sell of continues, and I will scale out if the support is broken.I still have some extra puts left , so I am covered to some extent.Target 1208!

sell index future:.: Mainly 200 day MA, around 1285. .I will probably sell 20 day and 50 day MA's with tight stops, depending on the situation at the time.

S&P and EUR/CHF update

2011-08-03T01:45:00.000-07:00

Below is the sp index weekly graph. The market is testing the march 2011 lows around 1250. The future bounced from that level and up half a percent for the day at the moment. In the bigger picture , the 80 week MA (blue line), which in my opinion is the critical support, lies around 1206. And the huge support is the 200 week MA(yellow line) , around 1160. Note that 200 week MA is still sloping downwards. To the upside 200 day MA is around 1285 which will act as a strong resistance.And next is the 50 day MA around 1306 at the moment.

I was stopped on my small long position in eur/chf when it made a new low around 1.147. But as I was still on vacation at the time, unfortunately missed to sell 20 day MA on 22 nd of July at 1.189 .Well it had a strong down run from that level to 1.0795 today. But as you can see in the daily chart below, it bounced strongly after swiss central bank announced they will take actions against a strong franc. Well , 20 day MA shorting is still a good game, the markets can easily make a big bounce. It is around 1.15 which also intersects with the break of the down channel.I will try to long close to the low around 1.08 with a tight stop in case it goes down those levels again.

15/07/2011 Market review

2011-07-15T01:29:00.000-07:00

Sp future is trading around 1304 at the moment. It has been a very volatile month in most of the asset classes I have been following.

You can see from daily sp index graph that the market holded on the 200 day ma(yellow line) as the support for a rally till 1350 and then we had the pull back back to 20 day ma (green line)around 1306. What next? Well I will be going to holidays and honestly I am mostly on the sidelines at the moment.
Below is the sp index daily graph:

Below is the eur/chf daily graph. In my previous update, I said 20 day ma around 1.21 was a good point to try a short position. Well , there was a squeeze till 1.23, 50 day ma(orange line), I got out around 1.215 with a small loss and then the italian worries hit the maket which triggered a sell off till 1.15. The market is trading on the lower side of the trend channel. ,.On the other hand , i would definetly play shorting the ma20 when it hits that level again.

The wheat was the bad trade for me this month. I got squeezed to the down side. As I mentioned last month ,I bought around 610 on average ( i use the generic wheat index), but there was a 10% down gap day from 640 to 575, where i had to stop with a loss.Then the market recovered around 20%. Below is the daily graph for the generic wheat index.

Last month trades I was looking for:

wheat: Buy slowly when if it makes a new low below 664. Stop is around 590, so dont get squeezed to the downside. The chart formation is crucial so better wait till 600 to buy if you are not sure about reversal patterns.(674 now)
did not work.
Market made new lows the following week as expected, so I got in on average 610 but got stopped around 575 with a one day 10% drop after bouncing back to 640.

eur/chf: Sell around 1.24 if it bounces with a stop 1.25.(1.204 now)
with update ,sell around 1.21 with a stop 1.215
did not work
Stopped at 1.215

This month:

Buy eur/chf now(1.156 at the moment) :with a strict stop 1.149. basically when it makes a new low get out. Target is 20 day MA, around 1.195.
I am in the trade with a very little position as I will be on vacation.

Short Eur/chf on ma20 with a tight stop: MA 20 sits around 1.195 at the moment.

Eur/Chf update

2011-06-30T06:08:00.001-07:00

EUr/CHf bounced back to its 20 day MA around 1.2091 which has been acting as a resistance since mid April. It is a good point to try going short with a tight stop. I already added some short term position here with a gradual exit after 1.215.Check the daily graph:

Update: Wheat and coffee

2011-06-22T23:56:00.001-07:00

Coffee broke down through 253 and trading around 243.75 as warned in my previous post.

Wheat made a new low this week , and I got in around 660 but got out around 647 yesterday when it broke that low stongly with a sell of till 617 and bouncing back from the support till 631.See the daily graph below:

Below is the weekly graph of wheat:

I will wait for that support to be retested around 617 and start buying in slowly with the ultimate support around 590.It might not see those levels again, but in that case its better to see how the weekly graph will look like before entering a long position.
In case 590 is broken decisively to the downside, it can go all the way to 520, then to 400 so the stops should be executed with discipline.

17/06/2011 Market review

2011-06-17T01:51:00.001-07:00

Well , i dont think that this down move caught anybody by surprise. Last expiration , the index was around 1343 and at the moment it is trading around 1265.

The first support is around 1249, the low in March. The next support is 50 week MA around 1231(orange line). The support for the bull market as i see it, is the 80 week MA lies around 1190.(blue line). The market might bounce to test the 20 week Ma around 1319.

Eur/chf made new lows. Well still keeping my long term short position.

Check the vix graph below. It closed 22.73 yesterday, 3 month high.

Coffee went up and down, overall not stopped but got out around 265 when i lost my belief in the trade. It looks more likely that it will break 253 to the downside than go up.The graph is below:

There was an opportunity to get into short natural gas around 4.82, made some money on it.Target to buy it back around 4.25.Below is the graph:

Wheat is building up a buying opportuniy i believe. Next week , i will wait for a new low and buy into it with a stop around 590.The graph is below:

I made some money on my 1 by 4 put ratio, eur/chf short and natural gas. Got out almost even money from the coffee trade.Still keeping all my trades and as i mentioned i am watching wheat to buy into.

Last month I called for following trades:
Vix: buy if goes to 14.5 with stop 14, (15.5 at the moment). Couldnt buy , missed opportunity, was fooled by the market previous month when i buyed in around 16 and lost little money.

Coffee: Buy with stop 253 (266 at the moment) Went up and down, depends on how traded. I recommend to get out of the position.

This month trades I am looking for:

wheat: Buy slowly when if it makes a new low below 664. Stop is around 590, so dont get squeezed to the downside. The chart formation is crucial so better wait till 600 to buy if you are not sure about reversal patterns.(674 now)

eur/chf: Sell around 1.24 if it bounces with a stop 1.25.(1.204 now)

20/05/2011 Market review

2011-05-20T00:58:00.000-07:00

On april expiration sp index was around 1309.We had a volatile month but sp managed to go up to 1343.60 as of yesterday's close. The futures are almost unchanged for the day. We have experienced huge sell off in commodities especially in silver which put pressure on the equities together with Greek debt restructring issues and worse than expected US figures, but I must say the market is holding quite strong.First lets check what happened and then go on with trading ideas.

Below the daily graph:

There is nothing much to note , except that sp is testing the 20 day MA (green line) .

Check the weekly graph:

See how 20 week Ma( green line) has been the support for since sep 2010. The up trend is still in action.80 week MA(blue line), is still around 1180, which i believe marks the support for the bull market.

Eurchf is close to the lows, i still keep my small position, and waiting a bounce around 1.31s to add to my short position(50 week Ma,orange line). below is the graph:

Silver was hammered the most during the commodity crash, and I got out around 40s as I thought the magnitude of the down moves were unusual for a regular pullback. I tried to get long around 37 as i mentioned in the last month's post , but didnt work, so as planned I got out with a small loss around 36, and now I have no position in silver , waiting for the market to stabilize. ANother leg down to 26-27 is not impossible, and I am waiting for gold to go close to 200 day MA's to buy into silver /gold. That level is at the moment around 1400 for gold.
Below is the weekly graph for silver:

Vix is back to 15.52 after going up to as much as 18.5.Below is the graph:

Finally, I got into coffee around these levels. 20 week Ma(green line) has been acting as a support for the past year, i think it is worth a try with a stop around 253.(254.05 is the low of big up candle on the previous pullback).Below is the graph:

I dont have any big position any more. As mentioned before, a little short eur vs chf a recently long coffee and 1 by 4 put ratio vs short call in the index in case of a rapid decline.

Last month I called for following trades:
Vix: buy with stop 14.5, (16.27 at the moment)
result: went up to 18.5 , low was around 14.2 was not the best trade.

Silver : neutral, buy around 20 day MA which is around 38.5 now.Stop if it declines more than 2 percent below that level. (41.98 at the moment)
result : get out with little loss

Eur/chf: neutral, sell around 1.32 with stop at 1.33. (1.2907 at the moment)
result: continuously went down, no trade.

This month trades I am looking for:
Vix: buy if goes to 14.5 with stop 14, (15.5 at the moment)

Coffee: Buy with stop 253 (266 at the moment)

15/04/2011 market review

2011-04-15T00:20:00.000-07:00

The market rebounded after the Japanese disaster, but is due to a small correction during the past week triggered by the sharp decline of oil from its highs around 113 till 105-106 and followed by concerns in Eurozone sovereign debt issues .

Below check the sp daily june futures. The market bounced from 80 day Moving average yesterday(blue line) and trading around 20 and 50 day MA's.

sp daily chart:

In the weekly chart of sp index, the market is close to test the 20week moving average(green line) around 1292. The following supports are around 1270 , 1250, 1228,1200. To the upside, 1350 level still holds.And if broken the next major resistances are around 1400 and 1430.

sp index weekly chart:

Past month was a difficult month , I was short eur/chf from 1.30 heavily, and the market tested the upward channel , decisevly trading around 1,32s. I increased my position around those levels with serious thinking of a stop level around 1.33, and thanks to the correction in the equities, the market pulled back, and I am mostly out of my position with a little plus, keeping little short for real long term and waiting for shorting the market when it testes the upper channel again.

eur/chf daily chart:

Silver is unstoppable. I sold half of my position around 40 which was my mid term target when i got into the trade, and keeping the rest for the real long term as well, and waiting for a pull back to enter around 20 day MA which is around 38.5. But the most secure entry level is around 20 week MA which is around 31.7. I believe the 20 week MA wont be tested unless there is a big sell of in the market, and 20 day MA entry is a trade with avery high probability of winning.

silver day chart:

Finally, I have been buying into VIX as it gets closer to around 2 year lows, but it has been costing me .

Vix daily chart:

I add a new section to this blog. My trading calls till next expiration.There is not many high probablity trades I see at this moment, but below are my favorite trading opportunities I am looking at.

Vix: buy with stop 14.5, (16.27 at the moment)

Silver : neutral, buy around 20 day MA which is around 38.5 now.Stop if it declines more than 2 percent below that level. (41.98 at the moment)

Eur/chf: neutral, sell around 1.32 with stop at 1.33. (1.2907 at the moment)

18/03/2011 Market review

2011-03-18T02:34:00.001-07:00

The Japanese earthquake , tsunami and finally nuclear problems were really shocking during the past week. I feel bad about trading on these events, and I hope they recover soon from this tradegy.

For the markets :
Below check the sp daily june future. It is trading around 1276. The low during the past week in the june future is 1241(index 1249). The market broke below 50 day Ma and found support around 20 week Ma(1268), which is below the spdaily graph.

daily sp june future

weekly sp INDEX

The resistance is 1295/1300 area which marks the region of 20 day and 50 day MA.
The strong supports are, 1220s the previous top, 50 week together with 200 week around 1180 and than the bull market support , 80 week MA around 1150 .

During the past month I made nice money with eurchf which was one of the safe havens during the panic.

Check eur chf weekly:

ALso silver broke up as I expected.It is a nice run so far, I am still long it, but when there is sell off in the equities, the precious metals are hammered too. So today I bought a turbo short aex index for a hedge in case of a disaster.

silver weekly:

Natural gas had a short term(maybe long term?) bottom, which was difficult because I got in around 3.75 and heavily at 3.93 , and then it fell back to 3.8 at some point but bounced back. Sold most of my position around 4.15, and hoping to short it around 4.5 , the very long term down trend.

Natural gas week:

I first lost on cotton short but then short it again around 220 and bought back 187 yesterday. Overall did not make or lose any money but a good experience to learn the market.

cotton day chart:

I lost some money on dax turbo longs as I got in the market around 50 day MAs(7100). Dax went down almost 15% from the high. Was really painful. But overall it was a good month.

dax june future daily:

Till next expiration, good luck !

18/02/2011 market review

2011-02-18T05:10:00.000-08:00

S&p is going up, simple. Well to be honest, I dont have the guts to get long at these levels. I am waiting for some sort of a pull back to get in.

Below is the daily chart.

I will be willing to take some position around 50 day MA when the pullback happens. It sits around 1280 now, and 1271 is the level market bounced from the previous pullback.

In the weekly chart below , 20 week Ma will be the first support. It is around 1242 at the moment.And the big support is the 200 week Ma which is almost intersecting with 50 week MA around 1180.

The 2nd red line drawn as the next big resistance in the picture is around 1436.

Well , i expect a European debt story to challenge the markets in the coming month but shorting the market is not the best option. I am long the vix turbo for that matter. I am playing with turbos trading commodities and currencies at the moment.

Cotton is building up a very interesting opportunity to short. Silver might be breaking to the upside for the 2nd leg! Eur/chf looks like continuing the down trend.

Below cotton daily chart

And silver daily chart.

Also check out the eur/chf weekly chart.

24/01/2011 Market review

2011-01-23T23:49:00.000-08:00

Friday was a busy day so I did not have the time to update the blog. S&P index closed at 1283 bouncing from 20 day Ma support(green line)(1272 at the moment) as you can see below.

The next support, 50 day Ma (orange line) sits around 1238 at the moment and the market shows some signs of exhaustion which is expected. The upride since the end of november has been more than an end year rally supported by better than expected earning reports lately.

In the weekly chart ,there is nothinng significant to see at the moment. The rebound in the market at the end of the week saved the technical picture here. The 20 week support is around 1206 which is not that relevant at the moment.

There is one thing very interesting in the monthly chart. Look at the trend channels from 2007 high to 2009 low matching with 2000 high to 2002-2003 lows.January'11 is not over yet.

At these levels I am slightly bearish in the market, long the VIX turbo, short the dow future a little bit. But ready to take my losses in case the markets extends higher.

17/12/2010 market review

2010-12-17T00:36:00.000-08:00

Being long worked out pretty good since my last post, and as most of the market paticipants expected, Spanish and Portuguese worries didnt matter that much FOR NOW!

In the daily s&P chart below , you can see that market found support on 50 day MA and moved up during the past month.At the moment,it is having a hard time breaking above 1250, it has been 4 sessions with no direction. The first support is around 1232 and the next one is 1214.6 , the 20 day MA.

In the weekly chart below, you can see the market is well above its 200 week MA(yellow line) and heading for the next resistance (if 1250 is taken of course) , around 1300-1310. It looks obvious to me that market needs some correction back to 1210s some time, but I expect it to be after new year.Famous 80 week MA(blue line) is at 1095 now, which as I mention in every post, is in my opinion the support for the bull market.

Overall, the macro picture is really complicated at the moment. The economic figures in US show improvement finally, the worries in Eurozone are under the carpet for now but 2011 will be though in terms of Portugal and especially Spain. My wild guess for2011 will be that it is going to be at best the copy of 2010.An upride with some violent down moves.

November Market Review 19/11/2010

2010-11-19T07:56:00.000-08:00

Yes,since my last post the market moved up to 1228 and then fall back.Luckily I was quick to cover my shorts, and indeed I am long now around these levels with keeping an eye on critical support around 1130-1150.And ultimately around 1080(explained below).

1228 is noted as the 61.8 fibonnaci retracement of the move from 2007 high to 2009 low.

I am a follower of the MA's. 200 week Ma (yellow line in the chart below) was the resistance in April, and this time 200 week MA is broken to the upside and provided support for the down moves we experienced the last 10 days.
See the chart below:

You can also see the 20 week MA crossed the 50 week MA to the upside again, which means it was a false alarm as I suspected. This strengthens the bullish view.

Just keep in mind the 80 week MA (blue line),which I think provides the support for the bull market that is intact since MArch 2009. It sits around 1080.

The daily chart does not tell much except maybe, the down move found support around 50 day MA .

Overall, there is still uncertainty about European Sovereign debt issues but apparently the market still wants to go up. Portugal looks like the next Ireland/Greece, but the it seems that the market will contain it as well. Nevertheless, I will keep very cautious of my long positions in this dangerous market.

October market review 15/10/2010

2010-10-15T01:37:00.001-07:00

It is once again expiration friday and time for a market review.S&p index closed at 1173.81 yesterday. The market showed great strength past 5-6 weeks, and although my long awaited sign of 20 week MA crossing 50 week MA to the downside occured last time(and still the case), I was very cautious with being short around 1130s.

20 week MA being below 50 week MA shows that the market is still weak technically ,however bulls proved to overcome any technical weakness lately.I closed most of my short positions but as long as 20 week MA stays below 50 week MA , I will keep my final shorts.

During the past month, market broke the big resistance at 1130 and moved above 1150 as well. The only resistances left before the year high 1217 is around 1170(before flash crash), and the 200 week MA which sits at 1196 which provided the resistance to the year high at the time.You can check it below in the sp weekly graph.

For support levels , look at the sp daily graph below.Of course 1150 is the first level with 20 day MA,famous 1130 and 200 day MA 1120 are the next levels to watch.
50 day will cross 200 day MA to the upside pretty soon if things wont change dramatically.Thus, the death cross will be just another false alarm.

Gold is going up without a brake, and dollar is in a free fall against other currencies. Euro/dollar trading around 1.41. It will be interesting to see the reaction of the market when quantitative easing 2 is announced. The market proved to be strong , which I think not because of the fundamentals, but rather due to inflation of prices everywhere.I still believe it is a very fragile market, we will see.

17/09/2010

2010-09-17T03:38:00.000-07:00

The market rebounded and s&p dec future is trading around 1130 at the moment.The market is at the resistance of the range that has been in effect last couple of months.

Below is the daily graph :

Notice that 80 day MA is also below 200 day MA..Here is the weekly graph of s&P:

One extra thing happened since last time, which is 20 week crossing 50 week MA to the downside.I have been saying I am waiting for this pattern to occur for the confirmation of the beginnig of the bear market,but I am more cautious in this market where patterns appear and vanish easily.In the past there had been few cases when the bulls saved this situation and if 1131 does not hold as a resistance, this might be one of those cases.

See how 80 week MA acted as support during the selloffs,apparently that will be the big one to watch in the future.

Coming 4-5 weeks will be very decisive for the mid term direction of the market. I still back the bears below 1131, but we can easily see new highs if this resistance does not hold. So if this resistance is broken, I will immediately cover my shorts.

Whatever the case, the bull market which started on March 2009 got serious damage during the past 4-5 months, and the market will be very fragile even if the situation would be saved for now.

13/08/2010 Market Review

2010-08-13T00:57:00.000-07:00

It has been almost a month since my last post.Since then first the market moved further up testing 1130 level for a couple of days in a row.
The bulls seemed to be in control and any weakness was bought into with expectations of a quantitative easing TWO. Euro went up all the way to 1.33s.

It was a painful ride for me as i was short the market from 1080s, and added more short around 1110. On top of that i was short euro from 1.28 and added some more at 1.32.

Well, the FED announcement was taken as a confirmation of bad economic outlook, and together with the bad macro figures from China , the markets took a dive on wednesday.At the same time the dollar rallied against euro.

Technically it made all the sense as the 1130 was the watched level which is marked in the daily chart below.

You can see the market even broke through 50 day MA , but later bought into and today we are trading around 1085.5 in s&p sep future.

In the weekly s&P chart below, you can see the 20 week MA providing a resistance for the last 3 months, but I cant still say this is the beginning of a bear market as long as the 20 week MA breaks the 50 week to the downside.But in case we dont see a big rally here today, the last candle in the weekly chart will form a dark cloud cover with the previous week's up candle, and a STRONG sign of short term trend change!

In the montly s&p chart below, you can see the market rallied from 20 month MA in July after being sold from 50 month MA, but as mentioned in my post in May, in early 2010 the 20 month MA broke 200 month MA to the downside for the first time since 1980s( i could not check before), and it is a significant sign for VERY long term bear market.

In the chart below you can see how the euro rallied till resistance(high of the big down candle) and sold till 20 week MA.It is a though call, but unless the Euro
sovereign debt issues pop up again,it is very likely that Euro will see 1.37-1.39 range.

Overall,the US Retail sales,Michigan confidence figures will show if the S&P bounces from 50 day moving average to test the 20 week MA(1130s)again or further go down to test the July lows.I am with the bears since 1 month.

16/07/2010 Market outlook

2010-07-16T01:25:00.000-07:00

I was waiting for 1140 to short but the markets didnt wait for me to return from vacation and sold off from 1131 till 1006 intraday low(till the point where 80 week Moving average sits).

Then we saw an amazing rally up to 1096 in just more than a week time accompanied by a Euro rally.

We have seen bad economic figures , but the first earning reports beat the analyst estimates, so on that side they seem to cancel each other.

Overall in terms of market sentiment, i believe the market is saying to us, "Ok , the European crisis is under control and not as serious as we thought, so where did we stop with the massive liquidity(thanks to the monetary policies) on our hand, lets buy stocks again!!!"

As long as there is no bad news, the bulls seem to have it under control despite the low volume on the up days.

The chart below is the daily S&p , you can see the market is testing 50 day MA, and we have seen the death cross(50 day crossing 200 day MA to the downside) finally. I already shorted the markets on average around 1080.In case 50 days give way I will sell more around 1110 where 200 day MA sits. And if it gives way the last resort for the bears is the 1131, where the previous sell off began.

The second chart is the weekly S&p and 20 week MA has not crossed the 50 week MA so looking at the past, this death cross is not a sure thing yet. The market is around 50 week MA, and the previous sell of started from 20 week MA whic is now around 1127.You can see the market has bounced from 80 week MA.

The third chart is the daily Euro/dollar. It looks like the Euro will test 1.30 very soon and if it breaks,it will go all the way up to 1.35-1.36 where 200 day MA sits. I am already short euro which is not that wise considering the cyclic behaviour of the currencies and the the trading range of 1.20-1.60 but I believe fundamentally Euro will have very difficult times in the coming months.

The final chart is the weekly euro/dollar and you can see the big up candle till the 20 week MA.

It is a very difficult market,one can get squeezed either side. I understand that the market is not responding to macro economic fundamentals as seriously as it has to YET , but rather the market is supported by the easy liquidty provided by the central banks. One thing for sure, the markets cant run away from fundamental realities for a long time, but you dont want to stand in front of a crazy bull as well.You can try to ride the crazy bull but i will rather sit and watch(if I am not with the bears).

Market outlook 17/06/2010

2010-06-17T01:35:00.000-07:00

It has been very volatile since my last post and s&p is back above 1100, trading around 1117 at the moment. As you can see from the daily chart, 20 day MA crossed 200day MA to the downside for the first time since June 2009(when it crossed 200dayMA to the upside), and is the first serious sign of a possible reversal in the mid term bull market.I will try shorting the market around 1140-1150 where 50day MA sits(1141 at the moment)together with the broken trend line. But till something significant appears on the weekly chart(ie.20 week MA crossing 50week MA to the downside),it is too risky to sit short if the market continues to move higher above 1150.

Technical Analysis 20/05/2010

2010-05-20T01:26:00.001-07:00

In the chart right above(daily s&p) you can see that the trend line i drew a while ago is broken.200 day moving average seems to hold s&p around 1102...20 day moving average crossed 50 and approaching 80 day moving average, but still not near to 200 day Ma. The real down trend begins when the 50 day crosses 200 to the downside, but when 20 day crosses 200 , one can still use a rebound to sell because it is a strong sign!

The second chart in the middle ,you can see the weekly graph, and the market rebounded from 50 week MA during the flash crash!Here the picture is also still bullish, first 20 week has to cross 50 week , and the real down trend starts after 50 week crosses 80 week to the downside.

Overall, for the long term , I am still bearish and with the new sovereign debt issues, I am more bearish than ever.But for the medium term, the bulls still have the advantage of the trend, although one should never forget that anything can happen with this much nervousness in the market.

next day edit: On the top you can see the 10 year monthly graph after yesterday's close.Well you can see 50 month MA marked the resistance and actually one can see 20 month MA crossing 200 month MA to the downside which shows a bearish sign for the longer term.This is a significant sign to support my long term bearish idea

Technical outlook 19/April/2010

2010-04-19T04:42:00.000-07:00

Above you see the daily chart in s&p, where it tried to break into the upper channel but failed, and bounced from 20 day MA which sits at 1182. If broken, next support will be btw 1133-1140, around the intersection of MA50 and MA80.
The market headed to 1200 faster than I imagined, the uptrend seems to be stronger but I still think once the technicals point to a downtrend (most important being MA 20 crossing MA200 to the downside-death cross!) the market will be more realistic in trems of reflecting fundamentals.

See the weekly chart hitting resistance at 200 week MA.

Overall, the market is still in the uptrend, still any weakness is bought into and it is higly likely to see new highs.I still sit out and wait for a clearly defined situation to be in the market, or to be more clear, to short the market, till then it is a good experience to see how technicals move the market against the fundamentals.

Technical outlook 04/feb/2010

2010-02-04T04:54:00.000-08:00

S&p 3 year weekly graph

red line 50 week moving average

green line 80 week MA

Purple line 200 week MA

Look how the 80 week MA fits perfectly to the graph.It worked as a support on the first sell off in 2007, which broke through the 50 week MA (red line).

Market recovered, made a new high and 80week MA acted as a support once again forming a Head and Shoulder pattern, and when finally it was broken at the beginning of 2008 it acted as a resistance in the mid of 2008, at the exact point it intersected 50 week MA.

In 2009 , first 50 week MA was broken through to the upside in August, then 80 week MA was broken to the upside in september and we are heading to the 200 week MA , purple line which is around 1200 in S&P.

Well, the perfect fit for my long term BEARISH scenario will be, 50 week and 80 week MA intersection acting as a support to a big sell off, (like this one where 50 DAY and 80 DAY MA's are broken to the downside, showing serious signs of weakening trend) and market rebounding to make a new high as in 2007 and then going back down to the old lows and maybe even further.

I will say it is not a miracle if S&P goes all the way down to 1000 where 80 and 50 week MA's are getting ever closer by the time passes.Bounces from there to 1200 where 200 week MA sits.

Goes back down to 920-940, breaking the support of 50&80 week MA.Rebounds to 1000, 50&80 week acts as a resistance and goes all the way down to old lows.

It looks very beautiful and reasonable.

02/02/2010

2010-02-02T05:51:00.000-08:00

Yes the long awaited pull back came, s&p future bounced 1.5% from the low of the pull back trading around 1088.The long term down trend line is not confirmed to be breaken upwards yet, but it looks like it is gonna be taken by the bulls.

Is it the end or are we going to see lower. Well together with my expectation of dollar strengthening, gold weakening,and market going down, I think this move was for now enough, but for me this is not the real pullback as long as we dont see 1000 or even 920.

This year, better bear mind that a pull back of a big magnitude is high likely. And I still think we will pay a visit to the March 09 lows sooner or later!

18/01/2009 technical review

2010-01-18T06:20:00.000-08:00

The pullback.When will it come? We are above the technical downtrendline mentioned in the previous posts but I dont call this a breaking of the trendline yet. Yes, the market is in the uptrend, but I keep some of my position as short for the real long term. This year hopefully wont be a boring year as many argue. The slow recovery etc etc.

bhc fund weekly performance

2009-12-18T05:43:00.000-08:00

Made some money due to dollar rally, lower index, some day trading.

Technical outlook 18/dec/2009

2009-12-18T05:39:00.000-08:00

Look how beautiful the long term downtrendline mentioned 2 weeks ago is working so far.It is at 1110 at the moment.

The blue channel matches 50 day moving average big support at 1086.I do think the blue channel is a very beautiful one in charge at the moment.The dollar rally together with gold sell off was expected already. Early january might be quite heavy. We will see.

BHC Fund performance update

2009-12-13T09:48:00.000-08:00

Unchanged week, difficult markets..

tech outlook

2009-12-13T09:43:00.000-08:00

Look at the day chart. Big support at 1085 for the last 4-5 weeks.

The market is around 1107. the big down trend line is at 1114.Lets see how things develop.
The market seems sideways because every good economic data is followed by an appreciation of dollar which is holding the market back.I am short the market at this level, although i feel the bulls will manage to break it. But i play by the rules and I know when I will get out in case of an upswing.

BIG DOWN TREND LINE

2009-12-05T04:58:00.001-08:00

Look at that beautiful down trend line, and the channel in the weekly chart..Is this magic that market is struggling around this level? Is it going to break it? It is the perfect level to short apparently. But with a tight stop.. The bulls have power but the economy overall is in my opinion bad bad bad, and that should push the markets down. Ah, I have been saying this for so long. Even AEX (Amsterdam)is very close to its own downtrend line which is around 330.We will see if bulls have enough power.

Technical outlook revisited.5/dec/2009

2009-12-05T04:39:00.000-08:00

Look at this market..Just as I thought it is getting extremely Bullish, it is sold. Why? Dolar appreciated with the expectations of a sooner then expected rate hike due to recovery.It is easy to reason it like that as below.

Scary/OR INTERESTING thing is,as in my previous post,ME, being long time OVERALL BEARISH, even said the market is finally going to break this BIG LEVEL,which i will explain in detail. There is a saying, sell when majority gets excited and turns bullish, buy when majority is pessimistic and bearish. I will explain the importance of this level in the next post.

Well , this index bubble is partly due to weak dollar.Index inflation lets call it. Thats mostly why as dollar appreciates, it goes down/deflates.

So what to expect next.Well, as I mentioned, around 1116 is a huge level.It is where one of the most fitting long term down trend line passed a week ago.And everyday that level is going down a bit obviously.

As long as the market doesnt break this level with a confirmation, it is early to talk about a move higher. It has been proven by the price action last month.There is always a reason to sell.

It is a difficult market. I expect a partial dollar recovery sometime soon with gold back to 1000. But eventually dollar will be smashed. Maybe euro/dollar above 2?? Why not?And that time, the markets wont inflate but panic. We will see. I love this market with so much action going on. Drive safe...

BHC Fund performance update

2009-12-04T07:55:00.000-08:00

DOwn a little bit due to lower dollar, higher s&P.

Technical outlook

2009-12-04T07:52:00.000-08:00

S&P is every day making new 14 monh highs for the last 3 days. But we havent managed to close at those levels yet. Well I think, after the beautiful unemployment data, today will be the day.

We had a big upspike, and things are looking good for the bulls this time. We will see.

As you can see from the hourly chart we are breaking out from the channel. This should take S&P to 1133 first and then BIG RESISTANCE at 1211.

Weekly performance report

2009-11-20T08:47:00.000-08:00

BAM had figures, 15 % down, today made back 3% but costed quite some.That hurts, short s&P and china helped recover a little but combined with bad day trading the result is 1.5% down for the week.

20/11/2009 market review

2009-11-20T04:41:00.000-08:00

S&p future is trading around 1086 at 17.40 amsterdam time. There is a nice support around 1070. Looks like 1100 is a big level, and causing some problems for the bulls.
We have 1050 and 1030 as next 2 big supports to the downside. Although the volume is increasing as market goes down, better not get excited that soon. The bulls still dominate the mid term game. Their key success, short squeeze when the volume dries up.Long term still bearish.

BHC Fund performance update

2009-11-13T07:53:00.000-08:00

S&P went up around 5%, and I am quite short it. So, the daytrading and stocks came head to head till the end of the week.Unchanged again.

13/11/2009 weekly roundup

2009-11-13T07:29:00.000-08:00

S&P is trading around 1090 @ 4.30 amsterdam time. As mentioned last week, the bounce happened and the market saw as high as around 1105.I believe as some other analysts,that the fundamentals to take the market down are building up, and the higher the market goes up, the faster it will go down.

At the moment, there is no big story which will push the market down, so the market is driven up mostly on the technical basis. I mean, the perception of the market is recovery, rather than the bad global economic conditions we have right now. And as long as this recovery story is on the headlines, the technicals will push the market up.

We might have a little up move further. But as you see from last weeks technnical analysis below, the channel is a rather low slope one. So the next level seems to be around 1140. We probably see some figting around 1100 level.

BHC Fund performance update

2009-11-05T06:24:00.000-08:00

Back...Well, I had some stocks long and S&P and China short. SO overall, it was more or less a neutral game for the last 2 months.I am exactly at the level where I left.

I made some money by day trading AEX futures in the last couple of days, but that is already in the result.

Market review 31/010/2009

2009-10-31T04:24:00.000-07:00

After a big absence due to issues in my private life, I am back..

The market proved to be strong after my latest comment, which was a minor down move and raising questions about a reversal.

S&P went up to 1100 , tried to break that level couple of times but failed to retreat down to 1036 on friday..

You can see the trend channel in the daily graph and the market is at the 50 day moving average support. I expect a bounce somewhere around here, maybe the market can go as low as 1000 but the uptrend is still there..The big level with the green line is 930, 200 day moving average. Thats the level which if broken,I will say the up trend is in my opinion over.

BHC Fund weekly performance

2009-09-11T07:59:00.000-07:00

Neutral/short. The market is bullish. Wating for another down move to consider buying some. Otherwise I will stay aside because I dont believe in a move beyond 1070 at the moment.

Bhc Fund weekly

2009-09-04T06:56:00.001-07:00

Troublesome week for the equities, got out of most of my positions ,waiting for a clear direction.All the good news were sold, this is the reason I am out.Last couple of months ,all the bad news were bought into.I see this as a change in sentiment.We will see.One thing I hate, is that this market proved to trick a lot of people the last 6 months. So unless there is a real confirmation, the market is still bullish.

02/09/2009 Technical Analysis

2009-09-02T05:58:00.000-07:00

15.00 Amsterdam
S&P future trading around 993, close to the low of the day. Is this the long awaited reversal or, just a little correction.?
(main chart is the daily chart, lowerleft corner is the weekly chart)
Well, too early to say. One thing for sure, 20 day moving average is broken with volume. Next target 50 day MA, 970-976. (blue line)This is also the marabuzo line of the big down candle in OCtober 08, in the weekly chart.If that gives way , 875 is the 200 day MA support.(orange line)
920-950 range defines the trend support for the bull run since March.

28/08/2009 Market review

2009-08-28T06:41:00.000-07:00

S&P future is trading around 1034 at 15.40 amsterdam time. Market nervously bullish. Positive news are all around but it looks like the fundamentals are not really improving. Especially in Asia.

1050-1070 range is very big. And to the upside I see max 1200. Downside, the March lows are quite unlikely. But first 920 then 870-850 is a big possibility.

Bhc Fund weekly

2009-08-28T06:39:00.000-07:00

Running the position. Bam helped some profits.AMG gone crazy. Difficult levels to hold on to the position.Market is getting nervous and the reaction to the positive news is becoming very limited.

BHC Fund weekly result

2009-08-21T06:45:00.001-07:00

BAM calls, and stock. Helping up!

21/08/2009 Technical analysis and market review

2009-08-21T03:10:00.001-07:00

12.10 Amsterdam.

S&P future is trading around 1008. Market is bullish overall and i still keep my long term bearish view. For the short term and maybe mid term, the market is heading up, willing to test 1050-1070 range. I am long stocks and short index future. Working fine, making some money.

I drew a channel on the daily chart above, with the weekly chart on the bottom-left corner.
As you can see, I expect the market to correct itself to 950s sooner(without going up much further) or later(after seeing 1050).

In the spotlight: AMG

2009-08-14T04:54:00.000-07:00

Yes , finally. For almost 1 year I believed in it.We had good times and bad times. Being a weak stock for almost a year, AMG showed some strength, what a strength, last week. It started from 5.20 , all the way up to 8.10.Almost 60%. Was sold off this week till 6.60 and now trading 8.22 again. What an opportunity.

Well I got the money I deserved. Thanks to AMG. i will be watching it carefully. Overall, i still dont believe in the markets. AMG has a lot of upside potential, but there are stocks which havent showed that kind of a move yet. I believe those are better bets.

13/08/2009 Market review

2009-08-13T04:36:00.000-07:00

S&P future is trading around1013, with real bullishness back in the market. If 1070 is broken before september, that will be a new lesson to me! I guess 940-950 for the end of August.

07/08/2009 technical analysis

2009-08-09T07:24:00.000-07:00

You can see the trendline, and the channel. I expect the market to correct itself to 950 after reaching 1060-1070.

Sure that, if there is some significant bad news, the correction can be sooner.But the trend is up, and th target is 1060-1070 which is the level I believe marking the end of the bear market rally.In case it is broken, i think we will have a sideways market for a while.

06/08/2009 after market

2009-08-06T13:09:00.001-07:00

Well S&P hovering around 1000. Looks like this level causes some problems.Market is bullish, but if the wind starts blowing other way, we will see 950 and 920s easy, which I guess will be the case before september. Upside, next target is the fibonnaci level around 1060-1070.

30/07/2009 after market

2009-07-30T13:08:00.000-07:00

The market is up around 1%. 1000 is difficult to break, but seems like pretty soon the market will go there. Unless there is some disappointing figure or news, which can be out any time!
The market is bullish, that is glass clear.

I am long term bearish still. Everything will be clear once the summer is over.

29/09/2009 after market

2009-07-29T14:53:00.000-07:00

S&P future closed around 973. Still waiting for more good news. The bad news so far have been bought into as seen in weaknness in bull market.Watching closely. I wait for a pull back till 950 at least.A try to break 1000 is also on the agenda!

27/07/2009 after market

2009-07-27T13:39:00.001-07:00

S&P closed almost unchanged around 980. Market taking a breath.

BHC Fund weekly

2009-07-24T07:14:00.000-07:00

Pity that I missed the rally again. Thought 930 or 950 would hold. We had a big spike from 950 to 975 yesterday.Crazy market. Overall neutral.

24/04/2009 intraday comment

2009-07-24T06:46:00.000-07:00

15.47 AMsterdam.
S&P future is trading around 971. Nothing special to mention. Maybe a little bit of profit taking at these heavy resistance levels. But still, nothing significatn to push the market now. Maybe Michigan?

23/72009 after market

2009-07-23T13:25:00.000-07:00

What a day! Bulls showed great strength lifting the S&p to around 975.Some people must be laughing at others who call this a bear market rally.

Well, I still call it a bear market rally., I dont mind these upswings. The only problem is to miss the opportunity of making money. At these levels, I dont see a high return/risk , therefore I am neutral, maybe slightly short. I am holding myself back to short more, because the market wants to go up up up. It is better to sit aside for me right now.

For risk lovers, YES the market wants to test 1000. I dont believe it will be successfull but the uptrend is ovious, you can wait for a pull back. The trading range at 950-955 seems to be broken. But still I dont get excited, I only feel bad because, the market is technically a buy(volume is confusing a bit, but today there was a significant increase in volume) but fundamentally I dont see a bright future for the market.

We will see.

22/07/2009 after market

2009-07-22T14:04:00.000-07:00

S&P future closed around 950s. It is technically expected that the market should have some itrouble at these levels. The sentiment is bullish. But I am not going to jump in this train right now.

Technically the market looks healthier then ever, but I dont see a major bull run coming on top of the one we had in past 10 days. 970 and 1000 levels, real strong levels as I emphasize the last 2 months. Then we have 1070-1100 level which will put an end to the bear market. Maybe after september we can see those levels but i dont think it will happen before september.

Technical Analysis 22/07/2009 10 am Amsterdam S&P future at 947.5

2009-07-22T00:53:00.001-07:00

The yellow line is the first big support @ 924( basically the range btw 919-929)

The blue and green lines mark the channel when the market went down for 4 consecutive weeks.

Instead of a reversal it turned out to be a correction. The channel support is around 910.

The orange line is the major Mid-term uptrend we have for almost 5 months now. The trend support is around 895 right now.

The red line is the HUGE support @ 870-880 range.

21/07/2009

2009-07-21T15:53:00.000-07:00

Up Up we go. I wonder when the train will stop. S&P future around 955. Next level 970. That is a big level, and I believe market is getting more and more sensitive to any possible bad new which is expexted any moment since technically this kind of a move is not sustainable. And we have the sell in may go away fact. I think S&P will be trading around 930s AT BEST at the beginning of September.

20/07/2009 after market

2009-07-20T12:54:00.000-07:00

S&P future is still heading up. Trading around 947. All the major indices are above 200day moving average, getting close to 52 week average. I am getting concerned technically. I am still long term bearish, but I didnt expect the market to be this strong. Or let me put it this way. I didnt expect that that many news and figures would have been better than expected.

Dont forget 10 days ago everybody was talking very pessimistic and now everybody is talking optimistic again. I will give the trading range another try. I am waiting for a test to 955 and probably to 970.

BHC Fund weekly performance

2009-07-18T08:46:00.000-07:00

Unfortunately,the short July call costed since the market went up almost 10% in 5 days.Neutral at these levels.

17/07/22009 after market

2009-07-18T08:44:00.001-07:00

S&p future closed around 940. Good news allaround. I expect some down moves next week, but it all depends how good/bad the news would be. I believe the market is slightly overbought because the expectations cant just turn to green from red with such little time.

16/07/2009 After market

2009-07-16T14:29:00.000-07:00

S%p future closed around 940.50 day moving average being above the 200day moving average and together with the latest positive news the market is heading higher. Next level to test is 955 and 970. Roubini said the recession might be over in 6-9 months. Whitney also made similar comments on monday.

I am getiing sceptical about my bearish view but it is too soon to change plans. Afterall previous experience tought me that in a bear market , there is always a reason to go down. And still we are in a bear market.

15/09/2009 after market

2009-07-15T13:30:00.000-07:00

Wohoo, what a day. S&P future is above 930. As mentioned yesterday, this is way more than i expected. Short term downtrend is more than over, The market is in the trading range(880-955) again. With the current momentum, it is likely to test the highs, but with the low volumes we have, I dont think it will break the resistance at 970. I stay neutral for the coming months and STILL bearish for the long term.

Technical analysis

2009-07-14T14:27:00.001-07:00

This is the daily chart from morning(around European open) of 14th july.

You can see the shor term down trend with the red line. Green line is marking the sideway market support at 880 with a tolerance till 870.
The light bliue line shows the broken mid term up trend.
The rest are the fibonacci levels.

14/07/2009 after Market

2009-07-14T14:24:00.000-07:00

The market found resistance around 900-905. There is the 909 , 920, 929 resistances with 929 being stronger than the rest. A close around 919 will tell me that the short term down trend is over and we are in the trading range again. Big figures, earning reports so anything can happen. Market is neutral.

I got out 50% of my stock positions as mentioned yesterday. 45% stock 45% cash 10% short.

13/07/2009 after market

2009-07-13T15:08:00.000-07:00

23.55 amsterdam

The down move happened when I was on vacaction. Not surprising.

S&P had a rally up to 895 from a daily low around 869. The market is in a bearish trend for the short torm, and mid term sideways is holding this time with support around 870.

I bought more around 870, which was my stop level because I didnt feel the market going down fast. The mid cap stocks were hammered last week partly because of claim emissions. I am more and more long term bearish.

Around 900 is the bearish trend resistance, we will see. I see this upmove as a getting out opprtunity and hopefully I will reduce my position at favorable levels.

BHC fund weekly lookback

2009-07-03T06:43:00.000-07:00

It was a tough week for equities, but I survived the down move with a short ATM call, long puts, long turbo short Volkswagen at 250 which I closed when VW was trading 228 this morning.

Next week I am on vacation, otherwise I would have bought some more stock at these levels with 870 as stop level.

Technical Analysis

2009-07-03T02:44:00.000-07:00

Weekly chart

the move since early March took the market as high as 956 from a low of 670.

S&p future is trading around 895 right now.(12.10pm amsterdam)

The green line shows the big support for the sideways market(880-940) . The big support starts from 890 getting its full strength at 880. A close around 870 is the stop level for me.

The retracement levels for the up trend are:

The 38% retracement is 847 marked with pink/purple line

The 50% retracement is 813 marked with yellow line.

The 62% retracement is 779 marked with the red line.

In my opinion below 779, this rally will be officially a bear market rally and we can go for a new test for the lows.

For the upside, the big down candle retracement levels are 38% being 940, 50% being 970 , 62% being 1000.

03/07/2009 Pre Market

2009-07-02T23:33:00.000-07:00

08.35 am Amsterdam

S&P future is trading around 896. We will see if the market will bounce from 890 or it will test 880s.I am going on vacation for a week, otherwise I would have bought around 880-890 again.

The last move from here resulted in 3%. I wont say no to another 3%. The problem is, although we are in a sideways market, a breakthrough to the downside could go really fast especially if 850 is broken too.

02/07/2009 Pre Market

2009-07-01T23:28:00.000-07:00

08.29 am Amsterdam

S&P future is trading around 917.5. Yesterday I slightly favored the bears, but the market had a rally taking the market to the relatively strong resistance at 929 once again. Most of the rally was sold in the end but still it was suprising for me.

At the moment S&P is trading around 917. The market is positive but not strong. It looks like 'sell in May go away ' strategy will win again and the markets will be at least unchanged if not lower at the end of summer compared to the end of may.

01/07/2009 Pre Market

2009-06-30T23:31:00.000-07:00

08.32am Amsterdam

S&P future is trading around 916. It was sold heavily yesterday due to lower than expected consumer confidence in June. I think the market had its chance to go up further and failed at 928-929 resistance. In the coming days , I think the market will retest 890, 880 levels.

The supports around 909 and 900 might save the situation.
Yesterday the market bounced from 913.

30/06/2009 pre market

2009-06-29T23:27:00.000-07:00

08.28 am Amsterdam

S&P future is trading around 923 right now. The market psycho is slightly bullish but I dont expect a big move soon. I think the following couple of days the market will trade btw 910-940 of course unless there is some significant news.

29/06/2009 Pre market

2009-06-28T23:22:00.000-07:00

08.23 am Amsterdam

S&P future is trading around 908. The market is just directionles right now. I think the bulls will buy every time it goes down to 890,880. As long as those levels hold, the way is up to test 955-970 levels.

BHC Fund weekly

2009-06-26T06:47:00.000-07:00

Had AMG(up %12).I increased my position as meentioned earlier starting from 890 and bought some stocks when S&P was 884. So far so good. I will hold them till 940-950 , then maybe take some profits. I will get out at 870.

26/06/2009 Pre Market

2009-06-25T23:17:00.000-07:00

08.20 am Amsterdam

S&P future is trading around 915. 919 -929-945 are the upside resistances. Market feels like bullish but still the strength is fragile.

25/06/2009 Pre Market

2009-06-24T23:20:00.000-07:00

08.20 am Amsterdam

S&P future is trading around 904. I got in the market around 885-890 and made some decent profit yesterday. The question is , 'How much further up can this move go ?'

Well, technically speaking the uptrend is broken once again, but we can draw another up trend line with a lower slope. Also, there is this thing about golden cross where 50 day moving average crosses 200 day moving average. Well it happened, so can we say we will just go up?

I dont believe it. Right now, as mentioned couple of times already, I believe we are in a chanel again and this time the borders are really strong. The widest the chanel can get is 880(875)-970. A confirmed break through from one of these levels will take the market in that direction. But for mid term I dont expect a real up move beyond 1000.

Right now, my feeling is slightly bullish for the short term, mid term neutral, long term bearish.

24/06/2009 Pre market

2009-06-23T23:37:00.000-07:00

08.40am Amsterdam

S&P future is trading around 893. The market has found some relief at this level for the moment. The test of 880 didnt happen yesterday, the low was 884. Some important US figures today! The sentiment is neutral,slightly bullish for now.

23/06/2009 Pre market

2009-06-22T23:28:00.001-07:00

08.30 am Amsterdam

Funny guys those market guru's. People who had been mentioning that 'the worst had been over' are slowly switching to MAYBE NOT!.

Well I am bearish overall for the coming 1-2 years, but this kind of moves are opportunities to make some money. As i wrote yesterday night, buying around these levels with a stop max at 870 in the S&P future can give some handsome returns.

Thats what I am going to try. I do expect bounce from these levels or from 880(876 worked the last time). S&P future is trading around 889.5, nicely around the first big support. We might not even see the 880 and just move up, but still I expect a test to the BIG SUPPORT 880. A bounce might take the market to first 902-911-929

In the daily chart , the green line is the famous 200 day moving average. Red is the 50 day Moving average. There is a slight increase in volume as the market penetrated the lines but i just take this as a sign for upside weakness. In the down most indictaotr, you can see the MACD is getting close to 0 for the first time in almost 3 months with increasing power. Interesting.

Blue line is the BIG 870-880 support range(876 being the latest).The chart marks from October 08 on.

22/06/2009 after market

2009-06-22T13:07:00.000-07:00

22.10 amsterdam

What a day! I had to comment. In the morning i wrote the bulls had the edge. I was expecting everything staying the same, there should be a reaction buying from 910s till 940s. But with the world bank report, the market is heading to 880 sooner than I expected.

The first level is 891. I will start buying around these levels with a stop at 870. As I always mention, I am long term bearish, but I dont expect the bulls to give up so fast. There should be a nice 4-5% recovery at least, if not more.(even if the markets will go down again.)

It is getting exciting again. Watch 880 level carefully.

22/06/2009 Pre market

2009-06-21T23:13:00.000-07:00

08.15 am Amsterdam

S&P future is trading around 918. The market has stabilized at this level for the moment. This week we will see important figures which will show the way to the market. A test to 890(880) or another try for a move higher. In my opinion, the bulls still have the edge.

BHC fund weekly

2009-06-19T06:37:00.000-07:00

Was a though week for equities especially in Europe. But I outperformed the market by having a short ITM call , short Volkswagen at 250 and some puts. Still down %1.8 for the week.

19/06/2009 Pre Market

2009-06-18T23:24:00.000-07:00

08.25am Amsterdam

S&P future is trading around 915 again for the 3rd day. It looks worrying for the bulls that they could not push the market up despite the better than expected continuing claims number yesterday. I am already out of my short term bullish view. Mid term neutral view might change to bearish if I don't see a powerful up move from the bulls soon. Long term bearish is gaining even more power nowadays.

18/06/2009 Pre Market

2009-06-17T23:28:00.000-07:00

08.30 am Amsterdam

S&P future is trading around 914. I think the market is stabilizing for now, and many people might see these levels as buying opportunity which can help the market up. I think the uptrend is for now taking a rest and we will see a sideways market for a while.(if not going down ) The range is 880(890)-945(955).

17/06/2009 Pre Market

2009-06-16T23:33:00.000-07:00

08.33 am Amsterdam

S&P future is trading around 916. The market is down with very limited volume. As you can see in the chart , it bounced from trend support around 910.

The MACD, the lowest indicator gives the second sell signal and a signal for a possible reversal in the trend.With no volume, i dont take this one that serious , but it is a sign for the weakness of the uptrend.

So far the trend holds, and the magnitude of fears and news is not enough to break BIG supports at 891 and the even bigger one 880.

16/06/2009 Pre Market

2009-06-15T23:30:00.000-07:00

8.31 am Amsterdam

S&P future is trading around 922. Yesterday the sell off was more than I anticipated but the volume was ridiculously low for such a move. I expect a full/partial recovery very soon. It depends partly on the US figures today.

Downside big support at 880. A significant support above that level is 891.

15/06/2009 Pre Market

2009-06-14T23:26:00.000-07:00

08.27 am Amsterdam
S&P future is down almost a percent, trading around 937 mostly due to little weakness in Asia. Nothing too serious in my opinion.

BHC Fund weekly performance

2009-06-12T06:30:00.000-07:00

Rumours concerning Apple taking a share in Tomtom resulted in some profits. Other than that nothing special again this week.

12/06/2009 Pre Market

2009-06-11T23:41:00.001-07:00

08.42 am Amsterdam

S&P future is trading around 942 as yesterday morning. The market needs some real good surprise as mentioned yesterday to test 970s. Nikkei is above 10000, which was a critical resistance, but it is above just around 1 per cent, which is not a real confirmation.

The market sentiment stays bullish for the short term.

11/06/2009 Pre market

2009-06-10T23:32:00.000-07:00

08.35 am

S&P future is trading around 941. The market has been closing around the highs last couple of sessions. This is a very strong bullish sign in my experience. Once there is a news with good surprise, the market could easily jump to 970 and test 1000.
I stick to my long term bearish idea, with short term limited bullishness and mid term(2-3 months) neutral.

Today, there will be US retails sales, jobless and business inventories figures.

10/10/2009 daily comment

2009-06-10T06:48:00.000-07:00

15.50 Amsterdam

S&P future is trading around 946 after seeing as high as 955. Looks like a moderate gain day unless if some surprise from FED.

Intraday comments

2009-06-09T06:45:00.000-07:00

15.45 Amsterdam

TARP money paid back to US by most of the banks. Helping the bulls. Overall neutral/slightly bullish.

09/06/2009 Pre market

2009-06-08T23:39:00.000-07:00

08.40 am Amsterdam
S&P future is trading around 938, nothing really special going on in the market.

Intraday comment

2009-06-08T07:24:00.001-07:00

16.25 Amsterdam

S&P future is trading around 928. Some rumours are in the market West LB in Germany has some problems, Ireland has problems etc. No real powerful bad news for the bears, but it might be a start.

Still , it looks like the market wants to recover the most of the losses for today.

08/06/2009 Pre market

2009-06-07T23:32:00.001-07:00

08.30 am Amsterdam
Nothing special, all major indices almost unchanged.The huge resistance levels are working fine so far. But the bulls still dominate the game.

BHC Fund weekly lookback

2009-06-05T06:14:00.001-07:00

As you can see from the chart, I am still pretty neutral in the market with short ATM calls, with long some stocks and long far OTM puts and calls.

From this time on I am marking weekly results , cause doesnt make sense when I am flat. Maybe I will switch to daily results once I take a considerable position again.

Intraday comment

2009-06-05T06:09:00.000-07:00

15.10 Amsterdam

S&P future is trading around 954, after seeing the highs at 957 due to better than expected payrolls figure.

Bulls are in the game. Unemployment rate is announced at 9.4%, which is higher than expected 9.2%, but this didnt hold the bulls back. A close around these levels will confirm breaking the 930-940 level. But the next big level is 970. Watching closely.