Wednesday, April 8, 2009

09/04/2009 Market Analysis


(click the image for a bigger picture- S&P500 daily chart )

As you can see the market is still in the uptrend on a close basis.But this is the third time I lower the slope of the trend line, which I think is a sign of bulls having difficulties to move the market further up.

Yesterday we kicked off the day in Europe when S&P was trading around 803.

This was due to the overnight weakness in Asia.

Then we saw a continuous buyback above that strong support area (792-800) which took the market to 825 in the close and 830 right now before the European open.

What does it tell to me?

Well i made up the story couple of days ago when I saw the first signs of weakness.

I believe the market has a good support above 792 for now and we have a strong resistance at 865 as mentioned before. But an even stronger is at 930.

Probably the market will stick in between 800-865 for a while with couple of false breakouts unless we get some real news to define the direction.

Personally I believe we will go back down at least to 750 in the coming months. Even retesting the March lows is quite possible.

For now I am keeping my position , and I will buy some s&P short ETF as we go up to lock in some profits.

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