15/07/2011 Market review

Sp future is trading around 1304 at the moment. It has been a very volatile month in most of the asset classes I have been following.

You can see from daily sp index graph that the market holded on the 200 day ma(yellow line) as the support for a rally till 1350 and then we had the pull back back to 20 day ma (green line)around 1306. What next? Well I will be going to holidays and honestly I am mostly on the sidelines at the moment.
Below is the sp index daily graph:


Below is the eur/chf daily graph. In my previous update, I said 20 day ma around 1.21 was a good point to try a short position. Well , there was a squeeze till 1.23, 50 day ma(orange line), I got out around 1.215 with a small loss and then the italian worries hit the maket which triggered a sell off till 1.15. The market is trading on the lower side of the trend channel. ,.On the other hand , i would definetly play shorting the ma20 when it hits that level again.


The wheat was the bad trade for me this month. I got squeezed to the down side. As I mentioned last month ,I bought around 610 on average ( i use the generic wheat index), but there was a 10% down gap day from 640 to 575, where i had to stop with a loss.Then the market recovered around 20%. Below is the daily graph for the generic wheat index.


Last month trades I was looking for:

wheat: Buy slowly when if it makes a new low below 664. Stop is around 590, so dont get squeezed to the downside. The chart formation is crucial so better wait till 600 to buy if you are not sure about reversal patterns.(674 now)
did not work.
Market made new lows the following week as expected, so I got in on average 610 but got stopped around 575 with a one day 10% drop after bouncing back to 640.

eur/chf: Sell around 1.24 if it bounces with a stop 1.25.(1.204 now)
with update ,sell around 1.21 with a stop 1.215
did not work
Stopped at 1.215

This month:

Buy eur/chf now(1.156 at the moment) :with a strict stop 1.149. basically when it makes a new low get out. Target is 20 day MA, around 1.195.
I am in the trade with a very little position as I will be on vacation.

Short Eur/chf on ma20 with a tight stop: MA 20 sits around 1.195 at the moment.