Friday, June 13, 2014


As my profit taking stratgy depends on the underlying market and as the volatility changes by time as well as the price level, I m still trying to figure out the best way to take profits.

I have tested System1 forTurkish Stock Market,Crude ,Silver,DAX,SP500.And by each set of data I could see some extraordinary moves as well asthe avrage expected moves which might be predictable by the recent volatilty at the time.

In any market, there are at least 1 occasion which result in above 20% up to 100% gains before the exit signal.

How to capture the most ?Because most of the time, the signal generates few percent up moves and then diminishes and gives the exit signal with little profit or brekeven or even loss.

Now I believe the best would be to take the 40% out within 5-10% of the initial signal which could be evaluated by standartdeviations. And also keep always 40 % run till the exit signal for taking avantage of the large moves..

But when to take the remaining 20%?

My current profit taking levels are as follows:

1st   20% signal+1 st.deviation
2nd  20% revised signal+1,5 st. deviation
3rd   20% revised signal+2 st deviation
Below are the charts and daily result:

 Warning signal in Google as direction of MA50 turned negative.In case direction of MA20 turns negative I have to exit the trade.
United Tech is building up a short signal. Only thing is MA20 and Ma50 directions have not pointed down simultaneously for the 3 period trailing comparision.(13.06.2014 MA20 compared with 10.06.2014)
Below are the theoretical results:

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