Friday, May 20, 2011

20/05/2011 Market review

On april expiration sp index was around 1309.We had a volatile month but sp managed to go up to 1343.60 as of yesterday's close. The futures are almost unchanged for the day. We have experienced huge sell off in commodities especially in silver which put pressure on the equities together with Greek debt restructring issues and worse than expected US figures, but I must say the market is holding quite strong.First lets check what happened and then go on with trading ideas.

Below the daily graph:

There is nothing much to note , except that sp is testing the 20 day MA (green line) .

Check the weekly graph:

See how 20 week Ma( green line) has been the support for since sep 2010. The up trend is still in action.80 week MA(blue line), is still around 1180, which i believe marks the support for the bull market.

Eurchf is close to the lows, i still keep my small position, and waiting a bounce around 1.31s to add to my short position(50 week Ma,orange line). below is the graph:

Silver was hammered the most during the commodity crash, and I got out around 40s as I thought the magnitude of the down moves were unusual for a regular pullback. I tried to get long around 37 as i mentioned in the last month's post , but didnt work, so as planned I got out with a small loss around 36, and now I have no position in silver , waiting for the market to stabilize. ANother leg down to 26-27 is not impossible, and I am waiting for gold to go close to 200 day MA's to buy into silver /gold. That level is at the moment around 1400 for gold.
Below is the weekly graph for silver:

Vix is back to 15.52 after going up to as much as 18.5.Below is the graph:

Finally, I got into coffee around these levels. 20 week Ma(green line) has been acting as a support for the past year, i think it is worth a try with a stop around 253.(254.05 is the low of big up candle on the previous pullback).Below is the graph:

I dont have any big position any more. As mentioned before, a little short eur vs chf a recently long coffee and 1 by 4 put ratio vs short call in the index in case of a rapid decline.

Last month I called for following trades:
Vix: buy with stop 14.5, (16.27 at the moment)
result: went up to 18.5 , low was around 14.2 was not the best trade.

Silver : neutral, buy around 20 day MA which is around 38.5 now.Stop if it declines more than 2 percent below that level. (41.98 at the moment)
result : get out with little loss

Eur/chf: neutral, sell around 1.32 with stop at 1.33. (1.2907 at the moment)
result: continuously went down, no trade.

This month trades I am looking for:
Vix: buy if goes to 14.5 with stop 14, (15.5 at the moment)

Coffee: Buy with stop 253 (266 at the moment)


  1. I agree that the markets became hard to predict. There are more than enough reasons for a sell off in sp till 1200. Coffee seems to be an interesting call!