17/06/2011 Market review

Well , i dont think that this down move caught anybody by surprise. Last expiration , the index was around 1343 and at the moment it is trading around 1265.

The first support is around 1249, the low in March. The next support is 50 week MA around 1231(orange line). The support for the bull market as i see it, is the 80 week MA lies around 1190.(blue line). The market might bounce to test the 20 week Ma around 1319.



Eur/chf made new lows. Well still keeping my long term short position.


Check the vix graph below. It closed 22.73 yesterday, 3 month high.


Coffee went up and down, overall not stopped but got out around 265 when i lost my belief in the trade. It looks more likely that it will break 253 to the downside than go up.The graph is below:


There was an opportunity to get into short natural gas around 4.82, made some money on it.Target to buy it back around 4.25.Below is the graph:


Wheat is building up a buying opportuniy i believe. Next week , i will wait for a new low and buy into it with a stop around 590.The graph is below:



I made some money on my 1 by 4 put ratio, eur/chf short and natural gas. Got out almost even money from the coffee trade.Still keeping all my trades and as i mentioned i am watching wheat to buy into.

Last month I called for following trades:
Vix: buy if goes to 14.5 with stop 14, (15.5 at the moment). Couldnt buy , missed opportunity, was fooled by the market previous month when i buyed in around 16 and lost little money.

Coffee: Buy with stop 253 (266 at the moment) Went up and down, depends on how traded. I recommend to get out of the position.

This month trades I am looking for:

wheat: Buy slowly when if it makes a new low below 664. Stop is around 590, so dont get squeezed to the downside. The chart formation is crucial so better wait till 600 to buy if you are not sure about reversal patterns.(674 now)

eur/chf: Sell around 1.24 if it bounces with a stop 1.25.(1.204 now)