Friday, September 16, 2011

16/09/2011 Market review

The market had a bounce , sold off again, made new lows in dax, and bounced sharply once more. On the right hand side is the sp daily chart:
The market had a rally till 1231, and sold back to 1130 and now trading around 1200 again. I sold my longs and now I am looking for 1231 level, 50 day MA to short the market. I have the feeling of a big rally coming up so, I dont really believe 50 day MA will work but with a tight stop it is worth trading. I have a better feeling of 1283, the 200 day MA.
On the right is the weekly chart:You can see the 50 week Ma is still with a positive slope. 20 week and 50 week are intersecting around 1265 which is another resistance before 200 day MA.Finally i would like to point out sth interesting in the monthly chart below:
Look at the orange circles in stoch and MACD.Stoch already broke down,and MACD is testing to break down which means the uptrend lost its power significantly and if the market does not show some power up soon, it is very likely that we enter the bear market. Look how the previous break ups/downs mark the reversal points.
Next is the dax daily graph:See how the moves in the past couple of weeks was in a downward sloping channel-flag. When the market breaks this channel, up or down, we will most probably see a strong move! At the moment, upper side of the channel is being tested, and this is another reason I dont like the 50 day MA at 1231 as a selling point. It is just not that strong.
Here is the eur chf daily chart:As mentioned in the previous past, there were some crazy moments during the past month when eur chf spike from 1.10 to 1.21 in a matter of time due to SNB announcment of doing WHATEVER IT TAKES to keep eur chf at least at 1.20! Well I wait for 200 day MA to short it as I said last time. DId nothing so far.
On the right is the gold day chart:I have been looking to enter the gold around 200 day MA(yellow line), which has been the major support during the past 2 years but looks like gold might not see those levels for a long time.50 day Ma (orange line) intersects the breakout from the channel, seems to be a good point to get long for the long term around 1730. And if we see a bigger sell off 200 day MA is still there around 1516. I start buying slowly around these levels.
Mittal has been one of the stocks sharply sold off during the past months. It is almost on all time lows, so I got long aroun 12.5. My target is around 15. 50 day Ma is around 17, and the market is testing the 20 day Ma to the upsite around current levels. Of course it all depends on the broad market.All around in the daily charts there are bullish divergences on MACD, so i see the probability quite high for a quick rally.

Last month I was looking for the following trades:

sell eur/chf around 200 day MA(1.25 at the moment) :Target is 20 day MA.Stop should be wider than usual, because of the possible volatility after such a move. SO size of the trade should not be too big. I dont see eur/chf going those levels that fast, but you never know what SNB will do to "normalize" the franc.


buy index future:sp index support 1100. I am long small index position around sp 1120, with sp support around 1100. I will buy around 1100 if the market sell of continues, and I will scale out if the support is broken.I still have some extra puts left , so I am covered to some extent.Target 1208!


sell index future:.: Mainly 200 day MA, around 1285. .I will probably sell 20 day and 50 day MA's with tight stops, depending on the situation at the time.


 This month I am looking for the following trades:

BUY small gold position around current levels, increase the size if the sell off continues, reduce if 200 day MA broken (1520) for the real long term! (Already bought 1770)

 SELL index future:.: Mainly 200 day MA, around 1283...I will probably sell 50 day MA' with tight stop around 1231 depending on the situation at the time.

 SELL eur/chf around 200 day MA(1.2369 at the moment), BE READY FOR EXTREME VOLATILITY , keep the size of the trade managable.

 BUY index future/STOCKS:in case market goes close 1100 level. major support..

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