21/10/2011 Market review

Concerning the trades I was looking for past month, i m just in gold for long term. Other than that did nothing positionwise.The markets are extremely choppy and waiting for very high probability trades.


First lets check the daily graph below:
Sp future is around 1221 at the moment. There is a strong resistance around 1233. 200 day Ma is aroudn 1274, thats the level I am looking for. The indicators overall show strength for the short term. So i still dont like 1230s as a level to short.To get long, there has to be a decent pullback to 1170-1180s where 20 day and 50 day MAs are. 50 day Ma is turning upwards, which is another pro for short term up bias.

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The Weekly graph below shows that the market is trading around 20 week MA which is around 1226, the next level is 1250s and 1266 , 50 week MA. You can see that 50 week MA is flat, which means mid term up trend(2-3 year)  is at least in a pause and 20 week Crossed below 50 week MA. Bollinger lines are flat, indicating a range for now.If you look at the Macd(the indicator below the volume),histograms are back to neutral, and turn positive in case we dont see a sell off next week.Stoch is on the oversold levels as well. 

Finally below is the monthly chart. The MACD in the lower side of the chart shows a possible break down , possible enterance to a bear market whereas the candle made during the price action of past month shows a reversal. Which one is true?Time will tell.

 As you see, a lot of conflicting signs, mid term range vs short term up vs very long term bear market? 

Basically, this month trades I might be looking for are try long on 50 day MA for sp, short around 200 day MA, might buy more Gold if it goes back to 1530-1550, of course all depending on the market action at the time .I dont follow eur/chf that much becuase of the snb intervention to the markets.