Friday, March 16, 2012

16/03/2012 Market review

Sp index is trading around 1403, but considering the latest correction in Gold and with the up move in SP, the past month's rally from 1358 is more than 3% in real dollar terms.(spindex/gold went up roughly from 0.77 to .847 which is 10%!!)

Below is the daily chart in the sp index:
The market briefly went down the 20 day MA for the first time and without even touching 50 day MA, it bounced sharply.The first obvious support is 1370 level, the second being 1340, the low of the latest minor correction and 50 day MA(orange line) at the moment.

The weekly graph:
The decisive break through  is more obvious in this chart.

I am carefully watching the correction in the Gold, taking part of the profits past month was a good decision, definitely going to be a buyer around 1520-1550. It has the potential to go much lower as posted before(more quantitative easing is not likely for the coming months, and positive sentiment in the market is also a downside pressure), so size management is crucial for the long run.Short position in Aex costed some , locked in part of it in the correction but still kept more than half of the position.

Market indicators I am using:

short term(2-4 weeks): 0.717
mid term  (1-6 months):  3.324
long term  (6 months-) : 0.306

The long term indicator is flat.
The mid term shows strong uptrend is likely to be intact for the coming months,
and the short term shows the upmove is likely to take the market higher in the coming 1-2 weeks before a significant correction.

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