02.06.2014 Some thougths on trading and a new trade idea!

An old colleauge of mine asked whether my trade idea on 30th of May was the outcome of a certain system or was I just checking out my luck?

It is a very important question and I thank him for that. That trade idea was based on observation boundaries defined with rules.So it ican be called a system but not back tested. It might very well be a losing system for that matter.

 Because to have a text book system, you have to have well defined conditions to enter and exit which are back tested by historical data so that by entering the trade you know that the probability to make money is higher than losing .

Backtesting requires extensive data analysis and I am not that much skilled in coding scenarios so alone I could not bring it to that level so far.

But I will try to  devote time for some simple systems which I can test with simple series of data.

 I m excited to see the results.

I made another comment while I was writing to my old colleauge. That I dont need to earn money from trading. As I have a job and this is a side-project and hobby at  the moment I am emotionally stable. And the trades being on paper means also no emotions attached.

I read and observed that good trades hardly ever involve their emotions. That is my handicap but I can train myself.

Finally I told him I got addicted to this game. Is trading a game? Well it is and it is not.
I prefer not to work 8-19. I wish I could earn easy money but life is never so easy. Trading is the most sophisticated game ever and you are competing with the worlds smartes people and "computers" literally for each cent.

So one has to take it serious but it is still a zero sum game with debatable added value.

Lets come back to my trade from 30.05.2014. I revise the deltas to 100 from 1000 because I would not trade that much in reality.At least if I were trading with real money.

I try to make this experience as real life-alike as possible.

Today's trade is sell 0,1 deltas(1000 points 100 euros) of Turkish Stock Exchange at the close.78648.
The idea: Major Resistance around 80.460, Shooting star and a confirmation in the daily chart.
Stop: 80.500
Target 1:77.350 0,03 deltas
Target 2:74.750 0,04 deltas
Target 3:72.250 0,03 deltas
Daily and weekly Charts are below :

Finally the result of open trades for now:

Always nice to see positive results..Even on paper!