21/08/2009 Technical analysis and market review

12.10 Amsterdam.

S&P future is trading around 1008. Market is bullish overall and i still keep my long term bearish view. For the short term and maybe mid term, the market is heading up, willing to test 1050-1070 range. I am long stocks and short index future. Working fine, making some money.

I drew a channel on the daily chart above, with the weekly chart on the bottom-left corner.
As you can see, I expect the market to correct itself to 950s sooner(without going up much further) or later(after seeing 1050).

Technical Analysis

Weekly chart

the move since early March took the market as high as 956 from a low of 670.

S&p future is trading around 895 right now.(12.10pm amsterdam)

The green line shows the big support for the sideways market(880-940) . The big support starts from 890 getting its full strength at 880. A close around 870 is the stop level for me.

The retracement levels for the up trend are:

The 38% retracement is 847 marked with pink/purple line

The 50% retracement is 813 marked with yellow line.

The 62% retracement is 779 marked with the red line.

In my opinion below 779, this rally will be officially a bear market rally and we can go for a new test for the lows.

For the upside, the big down candle retracement levels are 38% being 940, 50% being 970 , 62% being 1000.

08/06/2009 Pre market

08.30 am Amsterdam
Nothing special, all major indices almost unchanged.The huge resistance levels are working fine so far. But the bulls still dominate the game.

BHC Fund weekly lookback

As you can see from the chart, I am still pretty neutral in the market with short ATM calls, with long some stocks and long far OTM puts and calls.

From this time on I am marking weekly results , cause doesnt make sense when I am flat. Maybe I will switch to daily results once I take a considerable position again.

Intraday comment

15.10 Amsterdam

S&P future is trading around 954, after seeing the highs at 957 due to better than expected payrolls figure.

Bulls are in the game. Unemployment rate is announced at 9.4%, which is higher than expected 9.2%, but this didnt hold the bulls back. A close around these levels will confirm breaking the 930-940 level. But the next big level is 970. Watching closely.

05/06/2009 pre Market

8.35am Amsterdam.

S&P future is trading around 942. The bulls pulled the market up being favored at the last comment yesterday.

In the above weekly chart, you can see the volumes are decreasing, and we are getting close to 52 week Moving average. The indicator at the very bottom, MACD, still shows strength.

The market looks strong in some ways, and in some ways it looks like this rally is ridicouluos.

Well I am neutral on my own position right now. I am waiting for a clear direction.

Intraday comment

15.35 amsterdam

Nothing sprecial to mention. S&P future is trading around 933. A neutral day , slightly in favor of the bulls.

04/06/2009 Pre Market

08.30am Amsterdam

S&P future is trading around 932. It is almost 1% higher than the yesterday's lows.
There are several ugly stories concerning the health of economy and long awaited recovery. But right now, these news are not enough to hold the bulls back.

Combining everything I have read and thought, a situation where higher yields in treasury bonds are caused by the lack of trust in US treasury and inflation expectations,resulting in artificial increase in interest in mortgage rates, together with huge unemployment and low consumption, causing a deflationary pressure, dragging down the energy and materials,thus increasing unemployment and thus getting back to the deflation spiral which apparently investors think the markets survived should not be ruled out.

Intraday comments

15.45 Amsterdam

S&P future is trading around the lows 933.
The down move is due to Some dissappointing figures, and news together with limited profit taking.

As Mentioned before 930-940 resistance together with the popular 200 MA story are in business holding the market back for further up moves for now.

But the bulls still have the advantage.

03/06/2009 Pre Market

08.25 am Amsterdam

Nothing really special overnight. S&P future is trading around 944. I hear positive comments, economic figures everywhere. But I am skeptical. all the figures are not positive, just not as bad as 3 months ago. This is the counter argument some bears like me bring to the table. I also know, the market is buying the expectation that this better than previous will turn to recovery figures soon. And that is my second concern. We will see.

Today is the ADP employment change figure. Big figure.

Intraday review

16.05 Amsterdam

S&P future traded sideways most of the day. US Pending home sales figure was way better than expectd 0.5 (namely sth around 6%) S&P future is trading around 947 now. It looks all in favor of the bulls at the moment.

02/06/2009 pre market

08.45 am Amsterdam

S&P future is trading around 936, the high was around 944 yesterday. This doesnt count as breaking the resistance. But still, MACD(12.26.9) in the daily chart showing early signs of 'buy again'.

The market is strong, but I prefer to wait on the sidelines for now. Another point discussed around is that a lot of investors are waiting for a better level to get into the market , and this creates a huge protection(support) to the downside. We will see.

Intraday comments

15.45 Amsterdam
S&P future is trading around 932, bulls are dominating the market. 930-940 resistance is the target. Looks like this time it is going to get out of the way. But the next resistance is 970. And then 1000 level. I dont think the market has enough power left to deal with all these big levels. Together with continuing uncertainty-summertime low volumes, I expect a sideways market with max 970-1000 for the coming months if not down of course. As I mentioned in the morning, I am still bearish overall, but I am slowly turning neutral since the supports have showed real strength for the last weeks.

BHC Fund 01/06/2009 Pre Market

S&P future is trading around 830 due to the gains in Asia. Oil edging higher trading around 67. Looks like oil is going to see 80.

GM is going down today. The markets are testing the big resistance levels. The sentiment looks bullish but I am still long term bearish short term neutral waiting for a move to test 880s once more.

BHC Fund daily and intraday comments

16.10 Amsterdam

Sold GM with a little loss. I dont think return/risk worths holding it after seeing the yesterday's price action and analyzing the news in depth.

The market is mixed, trading above the lows but almost a percent lower than the highes due to mixed economic figures. S&P future is trading around 906. I am neutral.

29/05/2009 Pre Market

08.25 am Amsterdam

S&P future is trading around 906. The market recovered 2.5 % from the lows. The oil is going up, but t the upside for the moment the big level will be 75-80 dollars per barrel. Overall, the market is neutral.

BHC Fund daily and market review

16.15 amsterdam

Bought some GM. Other than that nothing special.

Big figures. Home sales were disappointing. GM news was a little bit of relief. S&P future is trading around day lows 887-888.

28/05/2009 Pre market

08.30 am Amsterdam

S&P future is trading around 892. Yesterday in the final hour of trading, the market sold off from 910 down to these levels. The bulls lost the cheerful momentum and once more bears are gathering power to re-test 875-880.

We have durable goods orders, jobless and new home sales figures today which the market will follow closely.

BHC Fund daily and market review

16.05 Amsterdam

Nothing special.

S&P future is trading around 906.The bulls look more powerful all day long.

27/05/2009 pre market

08.30 am Amsterdam

The bulls won the game yesterday big time, rallying the market 4 percent from the lows with the help of way better than expected consumer confidence.

The home sales figures, jobless claims and GDP will shape the direction. I am, as I mentioned yesterday, neutral now. (875)880-930(940) range is working fine lately. The figures/news should be really bad/good to break these levels.