15/04/2011 market review

The market rebounded after the Japanese disaster, but is due to a small correction during the past week triggered by the sharp decline of oil from its highs around 113 till 105-106 and followed by concerns in Eurozone sovereign debt issues .

Below check the sp daily june futures. The market bounced from 80 day Moving average yesterday(blue line) and trading around 20 and 50 day MA's.

sp daily chart:


In the weekly chart of sp index, the market is close to test the 20week moving average(green line) around 1292. The following supports are around 1270 , 1250, 1228,1200. To the upside, 1350 level still holds.And if broken the next major resistances are around 1400 and 1430.

sp index weekly chart:


Past month was a difficult month , I was short eur/chf from 1.30 heavily, and the market tested the upward channel , decisevly trading around 1,32s. I increased my position around those levels with serious thinking of a stop level around 1.33, and thanks to the correction in the equities, the market pulled back, and I am mostly out of my position with a little plus, keeping little short for real long term and waiting for shorting the market when it testes the upper channel again.

eur/chf daily chart:



Silver is unstoppable. I sold half of my position around 40 which was my mid term target when i got into the trade, and keeping the rest for the real long term as well, and waiting for a pull back to enter around 20 day MA which is around 38.5. But the most secure entry level is around 20 week MA which is around 31.7. I believe the 20 week MA wont be tested unless there is a big sell of in the market, and 20 day MA entry is a trade with avery high probability of winning.

silver day chart:




Finally, I have been buying into VIX as it gets closer to around 2 year lows, but it has been costing me .

Vix daily chart:



I add a new section to this blog. My trading calls till next expiration.There is not many high probablity trades I see at this moment, but below are my favorite trading opportunities I am looking at.

Vix: buy with stop 14.5, (16.27 at the moment)

Silver : neutral, buy around 20 day MA which is around 38.5 now.Stop if it declines more than 2 percent below that level. (41.98 at the moment)

Eur/chf: neutral, sell around 1.32 with stop at 1.33. (1.2907 at the moment)