Wednesday, June 25, 2014


There was a flaw in the data I used  to back test my system for  so i cancelled the open trades except Oil and Google as these trades are still in shape.

I finetuned the System that I trade.

The concept is to trade counter trend or into the trend alternatively to catch the right market structure to trade.

The system is backtested on DAX for the the past 11 years and working fine with a positive return of around 4700 DAX points.Still working out to improve it.

Below is the detailed result summary:

Trend entry when market close to MA20 lower than absolute 1.75%
And all 3 main parameters are in the same direction. MA20-MA50,MA 20 dir,MA 50 dir.
And market is not within 3% of the bollinger bands.

Trend exit 1  when macd negative with one of the three parameters negative.
Trend exit full when two of three main parameters ara negative.
Never enter trend on OB or OS and wait till 3% distance from the bollinger bands.

Counter enter when market is within 3% of the bollinger bands and at least one main parameter is pointing the counter side.

Exit 1 when market gets close to ma20 by at least 1.75% and then goes back up against the trade at least 0,5% included.
Exit full when this happens next time.

In counter trades once the entry happens market breaks ma20 then exit 1 when market counter breaks ma20 against the trade.
Exit full the next time it falls or also it fails a counter move within 1.75% and goes against the trade 0,5% as before.

When the bollinger band becomes more than 20% trade only trend entries.

If market volatility increases after a counter entry and thus market becomes trend, if the market is in the favor of the trade,TREND EXİT RULES APPLY.
If trade is losing and volatility increases exit.

If the market closes more than 1% above the upper or below the lower band .Exit.
And if counter , wait for confirmation of the signal.2 days in a row.

Below are the charts of Oil and Google as well as the results so far:

I will exit Oil if a close lower than MA 20 happens.I have to retest my system with the updated data.
 Hit my first target .Closed at the bollinger.Broke above recent highs. New system trend exit rules apply.I dont have the data to backtest at the moment but the market seems quite stable in terms of trends and consolidation.Not too many MA20-Ma50 crosses thus this system would give good results.
Exit 1 when MACD and at least one main parameter is negative exit 1.Exit full when 2 main parameters are negative.

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